While it’s been the unofficial year of the rookie sensation in 2015, there are a handful of quality MLB free agents who can expect top-tier free agent deals this offseason.
There won’t likely be a $240 million free-agent prize like Albert Pujols or Robinson Cano, but a handful of pitchers could be seeking six-plus year deals worth north of $25 million per year. That’s exciting news for teams with money to spend.
Contract projections are based upon a free agent’s skill level, injury history, positional importance, and historical projections for similar players.
David Price
The Toronto Blue Jays’ new ace has been one of the premier pitchers in the American League since he debuted, and a strong postseason showing could put him in the running to challenge Max Scherzer’s $210 million as the largest contract ever handed out to a pitcher.
Price will be 30 when he hits free agency, which means he’s right in the peak of his career. He’s on track to finish 2015 with personal bests in ERA (2.42) and WHIP (1.080), and the only AL pitcher with a higher total WAR over the last six years is King Felix.
Projected Contract: Seven Years, $215 Million
Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke’s six-year, $147 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers has an opt-out clause that Greinke is sure to utilize this offseason; he has a reasonable chance to duplicate the contract he got three winters ago.
Greinke picked an ideal time to have his finest major league campaign. With all due respect to his 2009 AL Cy Young campaign, Greinke is pitching the best ball of his career at age 31. His 1.67 ERA leads the National League, as do his WHIP (0.847), hit rate (6.1 per nine innings), winning percentage (.813) and adjusted ERA (225).
If Jon Lester got a six-year, $155 million deal from the Chicago Cubs last offseason, Greinke’s agent will push for at least that.
Projected Contract: Six Years, $158 Million
Jason Heyward
Jason Heyward hasn’t lived up to the hype that comes with being a former No. 1 overall prospect (per Baseball America), but he’s still a 26-year-old left handed-hitting outfielder who runs exceptionally well and plays tremendous defense.
Heyward is batting a respectable .287/.346/.437 with 11 home runs, 46 RBIs, and 20 steals in 22 attempts, and FanGraphs rates Heyward as a top-25 position player in terms of WAR (3.8). A team will look past his mediocre batting average and mid-range power and see a young ballplayer who can help the team in many ways.
Projected Contract: Eight Years, $200 Million
Johnny Cueto
The Kansas City Royals got a true ace in Johnny Cueto who can conceivably help them win a title this year, but they’re going to have to pay him some serious money if they want him around for the long haul.
Cueto is still just 29 years old. He seems to be showing no ill effects from that minor elbow issue he had earlier in the season. Cueto’s 2.64 ERA since 2012 trails only Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey among starting pitchers.
That’s a pitcher who is in line for every bit of a contract that Zack Greinke got several offseasons ago. Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Los Angeles Dodgers have interest in Cueto, which may make sense if Greinke exercises his opt-out clause.
Projected Contract: Six Years, $160 Million
Justin Upton
Justin Upton may have fallen short of the lofty expectations that come with being a former No. 1 overall draft pick, but he’s still in line for a sizable contract.
Upton’s .258/.342/.459 statline with the San Diego Padres is well on par with his career averages, and he has a chance to establish new career highs in home runs (31) and stolen bases (21), besting marks he set in 2011. Upton’s career splits show he hits righties and lefties equally, and while he’s a corner outfielder who plays below-average defense, a 28-year old power hitter of his kind is in line for close to nine figures.
Projected Contract: Six Years, $130 Million
Jordan Zimmermann
The Washington Nationals have a stacked pitching rotation, but they will have to make a difficult choice in the next 16 months, as they won’t likely be able to afford both Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg.
Zimmermann has never been an ace, but he’s been a rock-solid, reliable starter who will likely be paid as such. He’s seen a dip in his numbers this year (10-8, 3.54 ERA), but he’s also been dealt a career-worst .310 batting average on balls in play allowed.
Zimmermann will still be just 29 come Opening Day 2016, and while he’s a tier below Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto, he’s going to be paid handsomely.
Projected Contract: Six Years, $127 Million
