1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
GM Trent Baalke will be betting on pure upside with this pick, and Travon Walker offers both impressive athleticism and versatility to play multiple roles on the defensive line. Aidan Hutchinson may be the ‘safer’ pick, but Walker’s 35-plus inch arms and 4.51 40-yard dash make him a physical freak.
At Georgia, Walker played everywhere on the line – from a zero-technique nose tackle to a wide nine defensive end. In a typical year, Walker’s collegiate production and athletic skillset wouldn’t warrant the No. 1 overall pick, but this is widely considered one of the worst draft classes in recent years.
2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
If Brad Holmes can start his GM tenure in Detroit by taking Penei Sewell and Aidan Hutchinson in consecutive first rounds, he’s giving Dan Campbell foundational pieces for the future.
Hutchinson is viewed by many as the best player in the draft. He was a three-year starter at Michigan and set a school record with 14 sacks in 2021, becoming just the fourth defensive player ever to finish in the top two in Heisman Trophy voting. Detroit desperately needs pressure from the edge. This is a perfect blend of positional need and fit.
3. Houston Texans: Ahmed Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Sauce Gardner is probably the best player in the draft. He’s a 6’3” corner, ran a 4.41 40, turned in three stellar seasons at the University of Cincinnati, and remarkably didn’t allow a single touchdown pass in coverage in his collegiate career. It’s surprising there isn’t more buzz that he will go No. 1 in the draft.
With Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson off the board, Houston picks between Gardner, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and any of the offensive linemen. It’s simply best player available for GM Nick Caserio, who needs to replenish the Texans’ roster with young talent.
4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
GM Joe Douglas comes from the Howie Roseman tree that prioritizes pass rushers, and head coach Robert Saleh will be hoping Kayvon Thibodeaux is his Nick Bosa. The upside for Thibodeaux is massive, and while his perceived arrogance may rub some people the wrong way, he’s a building block for a Jets roster devoid of defensive playmakers.
5. New York Giants: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
New GM Joe Schoen comes from an incredibly smart Buffalo organization, and he saw firsthand how the team built up a Super Bowl-caliber roster in a few short years. Schoen has to know Daniel Jones isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback, but it’s also not the year to reach for one.
The next-best step Schoen can take is to shore up the talent around Jones, particularly the offensive line. In this scenario, Schoen and fellow first-year head coach Brian Daboll get the pick of the top tackles to pair with Andrew Thomas. Whether Evan Neal plays the blind side or moves to the right tackle spot can be determined, but the important aspect is to get Neal on the roster.
6. Carolina Panthers: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Any of the top quarterbacks (Malik Willis, Desmond Rider, Kenny Pickett, etc.) have to be in contention at this pick, but the long-term stability of a rock-solid left tackle is more appealing than overdrafting a quarterback.
Believe it or not, but Carolina has never really found its replacement at left tackle since Jordan Gross retired a decade ago. They’ve filtered through eight starting left tackles in the last eight years. Ikem Ekwonu has the physical tools to be the blindside protector going forward.
7. New York Jets (via trade up with NYG): Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
In the first trade of the 2022 NFL draft, the Jets trade up three spots to leapfrog the Atlanta Falcons and secure the best receiver in the college class. The NFL will always be a quarterback league, but if this offseason has shown us anything, it’s that wide receiver is now the second-most important position in the game. The Jets were reportedly one of two finalists to trade for All-Pro gamebreaker Tyreek Hill, losing out to division rival Miami.
They get a receiver with 4.38 speed in Garrett Wilson, and most importantly, they don’t have to pay him $30 million per year. Whether or not the Wilson-to-Wilson connection makes the Jets contenders in the AFC East remains to be seen, but it’s a good next step for sure.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
With Julio Jones (2011) and Calvin Ridley (2018), this would give the Atlanta Falcons three first-round Alabama wide receivers in a little over a decade. Jameson Williams is rehabbing a torn ACL, but this injury isn’t what it used to be, and he appears to be coming along nicely.
GM Terry Fontenot has to know his team won’t compete in 2022 – not with Marcus Mariota as a bridge QB and Ridley suspended for the entire year due to gambling. That makes it a good fit for Williams, as there’s no urgency to make his debut. But once Atlanta gets its long-term QB, a pair of pass catchers in Williams and Kyle Pitts is promising.
9. Seattle Seahawks: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
It’s a new era in Seattle. Russell Wilson is gone. Bobby Wagner is gone. Even D.K. Metcalf is the subject of trade talks. John Schneider could reach for Malik Willis at this spot. But he could also take the best available offensive tackle, go 3-14 in 2022, and be in prime position to draft his franchise QB in 2023.
If the season started now, Seattle would be putting forth 2021 sixth-round Stone Forsythe (and his zero career starts) at left tackle. The NFL isn’t always kind to rookie left tackles, but at least Charles Cross would bring a higher draft pedigree and a more impressive physical profile.
10. New York Giants (via trade down with NYJ): Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
What a win this would be for the Giants if they can trade down three spots and still get a potentially elite edge rusher in Jermaine Johnson. The Florida State product has the potential to go in the top five given his theoretical upside. He would play outside opposite Azeez Ojulari in a 3-4 scheme.
11. Washington Commanders: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Few teams utilize three safety sets more than Washington, which now sees a void on the field with the release of Landon Collins. There’s been some speculation about a Kyle Hamilton draft day slide, but falling out of the top 10 is where Hamilton’s fall stops.
Hamilton’s 6’4”, 220-pound frame brings obvious comparisons to Kam Chancellor. Washington has loaded up on its defense in recent years and Hamilton is added to a mix that includes Chase Young, Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne, Montez Sweat, and Jamin Davis. Six consecutive first round picks on one side of the ball could make this a top-five defense.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Derek Stingley, Jr., CB, LSU
After a freshman All-American season in 2019, it looked like Derek Stingley was trending to be the No. 1 player in the draft whenever he declared. Consecutive injury-plagued seasons dropped Stingley’s stock, but Minnesota will still be betting on Stingley’s massive upside.
Former GM Rick Spielman was never shy about picking corners early – Xavier Rhodes (2013.1), Trae Waynes (2015.2), Mackensie Alexander (2016.2), Mike Hughes (2018.1), and Jeff Gladney (2020.1). New GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah adds to the list with Stingley, who has Patrick Peterson in his prime potential.
13. Philadelphia Eagles (via trade up with HOU): Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Everyone had to know Howie Roseman wasn’t going to make all three first-round draft selections; even now, it’s likely Roseman trades up or down as he sees fit. In this scenario, Roseman leapfrogs the Los Angeles Chargers to take the best wide receiver on the board.
Three straight first round receivers? Well, it happens when you miss badly on Jalen Reagor (and 2019.2 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who is now a tight end) and need someone opposite DeVonta Smith. Treylon Burks is big (6’2”, 225), a three-year starter at Arkansas, and projects as a YAC machine in an offense that could boast three legitimate weapons in Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Burks.
14. Los Angeles Chargers (via trade up with BAL): Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Jordan Davis’ size and athletic profile are otherworldly freakish; think Calais Campbell size with Aaron Donald athleticism. How many 341-pound men in the world can run a 4.78 40? After coaching Donald in Los Angeles, head coach Brandon Staley gets Davis after a trade up.
Will Davis play 3-4 nose tackle? Will he play five-technique? Three-technique? It doesn’t really matter, because he’s so big and strong that he can be effective wherever he lines up. Put Davis in a defense with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Asante Samuel, Jr., and Derwin James, and this is a championship-caliber defense.
15. Houston Texans (via trade down with PHI): George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
The Houston Texans seem to be genuinely content with Davis Mills, which means they have an opportunity to secure two building blocks to pair with him on the roster. After taking Sauce Gardner with the third overall pick, they take the next-best defensive player in George Karlaftis.
Karlaftis didn’t have elite sack production in college but was still a First-Team All-Big Ten player in 2021 and would provide a much-needed pass rush to Houston.
16. New Orleans Saints: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Here’s your first quarterback off the board with Desmond Ridder edging out both Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett to be New Orleans’ Saints pick. They could theoretically continue to go with Jameis Winston, but fresh off a torn ACL, it makes sense for Mickey Loomis and Dennis Allen to find their quarterback of the future.
Ridder was a four-year starter at Cincinnati, passing for over 10,000 yards and 87 touchdowns while rushing for over 2,000 more and 28 scores. A 4.52 40-yard dash should translate to the NFL, making Ridder a dual threat.
17. Baltimore Ravens (via trade down with LAC): Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Wouldn’t this be such a Ravens pick? The organization that has groomed Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley picks Devin Lloyd to add to their linebacker legacy. Patrick Queen hasn’t quite developed as expected, but having Queen and Lloyd in a defense that already includes a terrific secondary is a good core.
18. Philadelphia Eagles: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
After picking a wide receiver earlier in the draft, the Eagles have to be looking at either a defensive lineman or a cornerback. Derek Stingley somehow falling to this spot would be a dream come true for the organization, but that’s unlikely.
Trent McDuffie is the logical fit here; after all, if the season started now, the team would have to start Zach McPhearson at outside corner opposite Darius Slay, and McPhearson isn’t ready. McDuffie doesn’t have impressive size and he has shorter arms than you’d like, but he was a three-year starter who fills a vital position of need in Philly.
19. New Orleans Saints: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
The Terron Armstead-Trevor Penning comparisons have to be obvious at this point; Armstead was an exceptional athlete from a smaller school while Penning is an exceptional athlete from a smaller school.
With Armstead just signing an enormous deal with the Miami Dolphins, Penning would be an idealistic fit at the blind side. And if head coach Dennis Allen can walk out of his first draft with a new quarterback and a new left tackle, it’s a promising start for him.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
How about all-time leading University of Pittsburgh passer Kenny Pickett staying in the same city to become the new franchise signal-caller for the Steelers? Malik Willis may theoretically offer a higher ceiling than Pickett but Willis’ struggles as a pure pocket passer make Pickett the safer selection.
If the Steelers decide to go with Mitchell Trubisky for a year as their bridge QB, that’s certainly an option, but Pickett is the kind of player who should be ready by Day 1.
21. New England Patriots: Daxton Hill, CB/S, Michigan
A versatile defensive back with corner/safety versatility would be the most Bill Belichick pick ever. This is an organization that transitioned cornerback Devin McCourty to safety soon after drafting him, and we saw how much money Belichick paid corner/safety Jalen Mills via free agency. Daxton Hill was a three-year starter at Michigan, playing nickel corner and safety. His versatility means he should get drafted higher than expected.
22. Green Bay Packers: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
You probably never heard this before but Green Bay has actually never drafted a first-round wide receiver under the Aaron Rodgers tenure. With Davante Adams now in Las Vegas and Marques Valdes-Scantling in Kansas City, the Packers can’t possibly say no to the best available wide receiver.
Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, and Treylon Burks are off the board, but Chris Olave is a great fit for Rodgers. Olave is said to be polished and pro-ready, and while rookie receivers have had limited first-year production under Rodgers, Olave has a golden opportunity to step in and become a contributor immediately.
23. Kansas City Chiefs (via trade up with ARI): Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
Skyy Moore is going to go higher than projections come draft night, and in this scenario, Andy Reid packages a third-round pick to move up six spots to acquire his Tyreek Hill replacement. Moore ran a 4.41 40 and led the NCAA in missed tackles forced (26) in 2021. It’s difficult to just replace Hill, but Moore is a good start.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
A once dominant offensive line in Dallas (Tyron Smith/Zack Martin/Travis Frederick/La’el Collins) is down to just Smith and Martin, both of whom are over 30 years old. The Cowboys could take a wide receiver to replace Amari Cooper, but they need offensive line help and Zion Johnson is the best available guard. Johnson would likely slide in at LG as a Week 1 starter.
25. Buffalo Bills: Drake London, WR, USC
Do the Bills need a wide receiver in round one? Certainly not with Stefon Diggs on board and the emergence of Gabriel Davis. But the new wave of football features 11 personnel all the time, and when you have a special QB like Josh Allen, why not surround him with another playmaker?
Drake London is a big perimeter receiver who can make contested catches. If the Bills do end up passing on London, look for them to target a running back early on.
26. Tennessee Titans: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Jahan Dotson would be the seventh wide receiver selected in this first round, setting a new single-year draft record for the position. That’s the new NFL though, especially with A.J. Brown reportedly on the trade market. Tennessee may still decide to retain Brown via a massive extension, but the release of Julio Jones still leaves the No. 2 spot open for a new player.
Dane Brugler’s beast draft guide compares Dotson to “Diontae Johnson with better hands and punt-return skills.” The Titans would take that, no questions asked.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Lewis Cine is the perfect replacement for Jordan Whitehead, who signed a free agent deal with the New York Jets. Cine is 6’2”, 199, and ran a ridiculous 4.37 40. Pair him in a secondary that already includes Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Antoine Winfield, Jr., and this is a prominent defensive backfield.
28. Green Bay Packers: Bernard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
Bernard Raimann is an interesting prospect, given that he was a tight end in college and only transitioned to offensive tackle in 2020. He will also turn 25 years old in his rookie season, an age when some players have already finished their four-year rookie contract.
Still, if Green Bay can get Chris Olave with their first first-round pick and Raimann with their second first-round pick, it’s a great day one. David Bakhtiari is on a mammoth extension and the Packers may not be able to afford both Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, so bringing in young OL talent is a must.
29. Arizona Cardinals (via trade down with KC): Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
After trading down six spots with Kansas City, Arizona gets Clemson cornerback Andrew Booth to shore up a secondary that would have to start Marco Wilson and former Minnesota first-round castoff Jeff Gladney. Booth has an extensive injury history but if the medicals check out, he can be an upper-echelon starter for Arizona.
30. Carolina Panthers (via trade up with KC): Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Carolina filled its left tackle void by taking Ikem Ekwonu with the sixth overall pick, although there’s still the glaring hole at quarterback. Sam Darnold’s 2022 option was already picked up, but starting him won’t save Matt Rhule’s job. The organization could always trade for Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo, but why not try for a long-term answer?
The upside of Malik Willis has to be intriguing. Even with his limitations as a pure pocket passer, his insane athleticism warrants Carolina jumping back into the first round. Meanwhile, Kansas City, which traded up to take a wide receiver, is happy to trade back down with a quarterback-dependent team.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Sometimes position need fits best player available and in this case, Cincinnati gets a Day 1 starter in Tyler Linderbaum. This would complete the fastest offensive line rebuild in league history, and a front five of Jonah Williams/Ted Karras/Linderbaum/Alex Cappa/La’el Collins goes from a colossal weakness to an above-average unit.
32. Detroit Lions: Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
No one has any idea how the quarterback will play out in round one of this year’s draft. The top passers could go in any order, and there has been talk of Detroit even taking a passer at their number two overall selection. But in this scenario, they take a cornerstone edge rusher, then wait patiently for Jared Goff’s replacement at the end of round one.
Corral was a three-year starter who thrived in RPO-based offense. He can sit for a year and learn under the veteran Goff, and Detroit taking Corral in the first round gives them the bonus of a fifth-year option.
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