We’re still a month away from Major League Baseball’s mid-summer All-Star Game, but it’s a fine time to evaluate which players have the edge to getting special invitations. For the sake of this article, I’ll play the role of the MLB commissioner, executives, and the fans, meaning I get final say in determining who makes the All-Star teams.
It’s not merely an exercise in selecting the biggest name at each position in each league; it’s an exercise to determine which player in each league is actually having the best season and deserving of an All-Star Game selection. Reminder that All-Star game rosters include 33 players – 20 position players and 12 pitchers plus a vote-in candidate – and every team must have one representative. However, I think forcing every team to have a representative is one of the dumbest rules in sports, so I’m nixing it for the sake of this article.
National League
Catcher: Buster Posey has been to five of the last six NL All-Star teams and he is hitting .292 this year, but he doesn’t get my starting nod. Francisco Cervelli has been the surprise best catcher in the National League, hitting a solid .259/.391/.506 with nine home runs and 35 RBIs and rating by FanGraphs as the best offensive and defensive catcher in the game (2.4 WAR). Posey will back Cervelli up. Because you need three catchers, Miami’s J.T. Realmuto (.300 with seven home runs and a 2.3 WAR) gets a vote as well. Starter: Francisco Cervelli (1st selection); Backups: Buster Posey (6), J.T. Realmuto (1)
First Base: Perennial All-Stars Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt have seen a dip in their numbers, Anthony Rizzo is hitting just .249, and reigning Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger is mired at just a .242 clip. It’s time to call Freddie Freeman the consensus best first baseman in the National League. Freeman is batting .342/.434/.597 with 15 home runs. In a down year for NL position players, Freeman will contend for the league MVP award. Brandon Belt gets the second spot – he’s hitting .307 and on pace for close to 30 home runs. Because of Joey Votto’s consistently high on-base percentage (.426) to go with a .303 batting average, I’ll give him a nod as well. Starter: Freddie Freeman (3); Backups: Brandon Belt (2), Joey Votto (6)
Second Base: It’s amazing what has happened to Scooter Gennett since his miraculous four-home run game last spring, but he’s now legitimately one of the best second baseman in the game. Gennett has followed up a breakout 2017 season (27 home runs) by hitting for average and power – he’s at .337 with 12 home runs. It’s a tough call for the final spot between Cesar Hernandez and Ozzie Albies. Hernandez has the higher batting average (.265 to .252), shows much more patience at the plate (.375 OBP to just .297 for Albies), and plays better defense, but Albies has significantly more power (16 to seven home runs). WAR has them equal (1.7 apiece). I’ll go with the 21-year-old Albies because I like his bat more. Starter: Scooter Gennett (1); Backup: Ozzie Albies (1)
Third Base: It’s Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant at this position, and then everyone else. Arenado is hitting .312 with 13 home runs and playing his usual Gold Glove-quality defense at the hot corner; his 144 adjusted OPS represents a single-season high. Bryant has accomplished more in four seasons than many greats accomplish in a career, and he’s quietly on pace for another 25-home run season and close to 6.0 WAR. Eugenio Suarez’s 12 home runs and 49 RBIs should earn him his first career selection. Starter: Nolan Arenado (4); Backups: Kris Bryant (4), Eugenio Suarez (1)
Shortstop: Corey Seager’s season-ending Tommy John surgery opens up the All-Star voting a little at this position. Brandon Crawford leads all NL shortstops in batting average (.322) and on-base percentage (.373), as well as total WAR (2.2). Trea Turner is still just 24 years old and seems like the logical backup choice, especially with Paul DeJong now on the DL for up to two months. Turner is hitting just .257 but one of the best baserunners in the game; per FanGraphs, no one has provided more runs on the basepaths than Turner’s 5.5. Turner is also 20 of 21 stealing bases and playing excellent defense. Starter: Brandon Crawford (2); Backup: Trea Turner (1)
Outfield: I won’t break these into left/center/right field, so I’ll elect three starters and then four backups. When you look at the leaderboards, you see how much of a down year it is across the board.
Normally, you’d expect Bryce Harper to be a lock. He is leading the National League in both home runs (19) and walks (51), but that .225 batting average is extremely disappointing for a player who is hoping for a $400-plus million free agent deal. Even though FanGraphs doesn’t like his defense (-6.8 runs), I’ll still put him on the team due to his power and OBP numbers – just not as a starter. Lorenzo Cain has been the NL’s best outfielder in his first year away from Kansas City; he’s excelled in all three phases (offense/defense/baserunning) while helping Milwaukee to the league’s surprise best record. 34-year-old veteran Nick Markakis gets a starting spot; he’s hitting a career-best .325 in his 13th major league season, and remarkably, he’s never made it before. And A.J. Pollock will miss significant time with a fractured thumb, but he’s sitting at a .620 slugging percentage and still second among NL outfielders in WAR (2.3).
Matt Kemp gets one of the backup spots. He’s back to justifying his $21.75 million salary in 2018 as he’s hitting .335 with 11 home runs and a league-best .566 slugging percentage. After a 2017 season that saw him bat just .211, Kyle Schwarber is at .242 with 12 home runs and one of the best walk rates in the game. He’s even playing above-average defense. Christian Yelich gives Milwaukee another All-Star outfielder. Yelich is hitting .301 and making a bid for a 20 HR/20 SB season. Starters: Lorenzo Cain (2), Nick Markakis (1), A.J. Pollock (2); Backups: Bryce Harper (6), Matt Kemp (3), Kyle Schwarber (1), Christian Yelich (1)
Starting Pitching: Strangely enough, this group won’t include Clayton Kershaw, who is on the DL for the fifth time in as many seasons and likely to miss the All-Star team for the first year since 2010. The new best pitcher in baseball is Max Scherzer, who is in the midst of one of the most dominant pitching runs we’ve ever seen. If the season ended now, he would win his third consecutive Cy Young (and fourth total), while leading the NL in strikeouts and WHIP for the third straight year and wins for the fourth time. Even with Scherzer’s dominance, Jacob deGrom leads the NL in ERA (1.55) and he’s lost just two games in 14 starts. Aaron Nola is the ace of an overachieving Phillies staff. If you go by Baseball Reference instead of FanGraphs, he’s tied for first in WAR (4.3).
Patrick Corbin’s high strikeout rate (11.4 K/9) is a testament to his overpowering sinker. He’s 6-2 with a 3.21 ERA and that makes him a free-agent-to-be in line for a big payday. Mike Foltynewicz is finally living up to his potential as a former first-round pick; he’s held opposing hitters to a .197 batting average. Before 2018, Miles Mikolas hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2014. All of a sudden, he’s 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA and league-best 0.9 BB/9 walk rate. Injuries will likely always be an issue for Noah Syndergaard, but when he’s been on the mound this season, he’s registered a 3.06 ERA and a terrific 10.6 K/9 strikeout rate. The ageless left-handed wonder Jon Lester is 8-2 with a 2.28 ERA and allowing hits at a lower rate than any year of his career. Selections: Max Scherzer (6), Jacob deGrom (2), Aaron Nola (1), Patrick Corbin (1), Mike Foltynewicz (1), Miles Mikolas (1), Noah Syndergaard (2), Jon Lester (5)
Relief Pitching: You can’t possibly have an All-Star team without second-year reliever Josh Hader, who has struck out an absurd 54 percent of batters he’s faced this year. Colorado’s Adam Ottavino has a tremendous strikeout rate of his own (14.4 K/9) and an even better ERA (0.92). Sean Doolittle has been one of the game’s best relievers for the past half-decade, and he’s thriving in Washington, where’s he’s racked up 17 saves and a 1.52 ERA. Jeremy Jeffress gets the final spot. He leads all NL relievers in wins (5) and ERA (0.53), and his dominance in the bullpen is a big reason why Milwaukee has exceeded expectations so much this year. Selections: Josh Hader (1), Adam Ottavino (1), Sean Doolittle (2), Jeremy Jeffress (1)
American League
Catcher: What a disappointing year for AL backstoppers. Gary Sanchez leads his position in home runs (12), but a sub-.200 batting average doesn’t cut it. Russell Martin is batting .168. Brian McCann is at .209. Jonathan Lucroy has been merely adequate since signing with Oakland. Salvador Perez has made the last four AL All-Star teams, but his low batting average (.225) and on-base percentage (.275) keep him from getting my vote. Wilson Ramos wins a boring competition; he’s hitting .282 with above-average defense for Tampa Bay. Starter: Wilson Ramos (2), Salvador Perez (6)
First Base: Where have all the good AL first basemen gone? Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols have long since seen their best days. Mitch Moreland (.273/.345/.540, 10 home runs) and Jose Abreu (.287/.344/.509, 11 home runs) have the best offensive numbers at the position, but even that isn’t what you’d expect from a position that places such a premium on offense. Moreland gets the starting spot, as it’s always tough to ignore Abreu’s defense; for context, Abreu rates as the second-worst defensive player in all of baseball (-8.4 defensive runs saved). Starter: Mitch Moreland (1); Backup: Jose Abreu (2)
Second Base: We’re in quite a transition period in the game. Longtime stalwarts Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano won’t make the team; Pedroia missed the first two months due to injury while Cano broke his hand and was then popped with an 80-game suspension for PEDs. Fortunately, we can still count on Jose Altuve, who is doing Altuve things once again. The four-time reigning AL hit champ and 2017 league MVP is staking his claim for a fifth straight year leading the league, a feat that’s only been accomplished by Ichiro Suzuki in MLB history. Jed Lowrie hasn’t been flashy but he’s hitting .283 with nine home runs and good defense; that’s enough for a backup spot on this team. Gleyber Torres got a late start to the season, but he’s made up for it with a .289 average thus far and more home runs (13) than all but one other AL second baseman. Starter: Jose Altuve (6); Backups: Jed Lowrie (1), Gleyber Torres (1)
Third Base: Jose Ramirez deserves to start here with ease, as he’s the most unheralded superstar in the game. Ramirez has power (20 home runs), baserunning ability (eight steals), and he plays elite defense. Only Mike Trout has a higher WAR among MLB position players. Oakland’s Matt Chapman still flies way under the radar despite being a 2014 first-round pick; he’s second to just Francisco Lindor as the best overall defensive player in the game (+9.1 runs saved). Chapman can also hit a little too – he’s knocked 10 home runs so far. Starter: Jose Ramirez (2); Backup: Matt Chapman (1)
Shortstop: This is arguably the deepest position in the game. Francisco Lindor deserves to start, as he’s hitting .290/.361/.530 with 15 home runs and Gold Glove-quality defense at the premier defensive spot. Manny Machado has switched over from third base, and while his defensive metrics aren’t up to par with what you’d expect from him, he’s still hitting .306 and on pace for 40 home runs. Andrelton Simmons is a defensive wizard, and while he’s on the DL, he’s batting .330 and very deserving of his first career All-Star appearance. And Jean Segura has been a godsend for the surprisingly impressive Seattle Mariners, as he’s hitting .344 with 52 runs scored already. It’s an impressive enough collection of players that there’s no room for Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts. Starter: Francisco Lindor (3); Manny Machado (4), Andrelton Simmons (1), Jean Segura (2)
Outfield: This group starts with Mike Trout, the closest thing we’ve seen to Willie Mays since Willie Mays. Trout manages to one-up himself every day, whether he’s hitting multiple home runs, making defensive web gems, or stealing a slew of bases without getting caught. He’s currently leading the league in runs, home runs, walks, on-base percentage, total bases, and adjusted OPS; seven All-Star appearances and likely a third MVP award by age 27 – that’s good, right?
Mookie Betts deserves a starting spot for his outstanding all-around play. He’s slugging a ridiculous .721 with 18 home runs, 13 steals, and strong defense. Aaron Judge has his rough days (eight strikeouts in a doubleheader), but he’s also on pace for 45 home runs and proving 2017 was no fluke.
J.D. Martinez is dominating in the first year of his $110 million contract – he’s hit 22 home runs already despite defense that suggests he should be a DH, and that’s exactly what he’ll bat in the All-Star Game. And with Andrew Benintendi, that means the Red Sox could have a clean sweep of their outfielders; Benintendi is batting .296/.383/.545 with 12 home runs and 11 steals thus far.
Eddie Rosario’s totals are certainly helped by a three home run game, but even so, he’s batting .313 with a .565 slugging percentage and well on pace for 30 long balls. You could make a case for a handful of different players to get the final spot; I’m going to go with Shohei Ohtani. Can he actually play in the game? No because he’s hurt, which means I’ll immediately fill his shot with that of Mitch Haniger. But I have to recognize Ohtani for his domiannt 2018 season thus far (150 adjusted OPS at the plate and 130 adjusted ERA on the mound). Starters: Mike Trout (7), Mookie Betts (3), Aaron Judge (2); Backups: J.D. Martinez (2), Andrew Benintendi (1), Eddie Rosario (1), Shohei Ohtani (1), Mitch Haniger (1)
Starting Pitching: Justin Verlander has now made 20 regular season starts for Houston since they acquired him last summer; he’s 14-2 with a 1.47 ERA. He’s the best bet to start the All-Star Game for the AL next month. His teammate, Gerrit Cole, has been nearly as dynamic since joining Houston; Cole is 8-1 with a 2.40 ERA and league-best 12.5/9 strikeout rate.
No All-Star roster is complete without Corey Kluber (10-3, 2.24 ERA) or Chris Sale (6-4, 2.75 ERA), each of whom is a top-five pitcher in the game right now. The quietly spectacular ace of the New York Yankees, Luis Severino is 9-2 with a 2.27 ERA and equally impressive peripherals.
Trevor Bauer has exceeded 100 pitchers in every start he’s made in 2018. According to FanGraphs’ WAR leaderboard, he’s even ahead of his two-time Cy Young award winning teammate, Corey Kluber (3.3 to 2.7). Charlie Morton gives us three Houston Astros starters – he’s 7-1 with a 2.82 ERA and the free-agent-to-be is picking quite a time to have a career year. James Paxton narrowly edges out Blake Snell for the final spot; Paxton is the new ace of the Seattle Mariners with King Felix’s recent struggles. Paxton is following up a 2017 breakout campaign with a career-high 11.2 strikeout rate and solid 3.02 ERA. Selections: Justin Verlander (7), Gerrit Cole (1), Corey Kluber (3), Chris Sale (7), Luis Severino (2), Trevor Bauer (1), Charlie Morton (1), James Paxton (1)
Relief Pitching: Seattle’s rail-skinny closer, Edwin Diaz, is leading the league in relief appearances (37), games finished (31), and saves (26), and he’s doing so to the tune of a 2.43 ERA and 14.4/9 strikeout rate. Craig Kimbrel’s peripherals (walk and home run rate) are high for his standards, but he’s still registered 22 saves and a 2.40 ERA. Aroldis Chapman is vying for his fifth career 100-strikeout season and on track for a personal best 1.21 ERA. If a reliever can validate a $17 million/year contract, then Chapman is doing it. Kelvin Herrera’s strikeouts are down, but when you’ve walked just two of 95 batters you’ve faced and only allowed three to score, you’re having a pretty good year. Selections: Edwin Diaz (1), Craig Kimbrel (7), Aroldis Chapman (5), Kelvin Herrera (3)
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