The baseball world was dealt a shocking blow recently with the news of Robinson Cano’s 80-game suspension for PEDs. A career .305 hitter with a strong likelihood of reaching 3,000 hits, this was a harsh reality check for Cano’s Hall of Fame chances. He was probably on track for Cooperstown, but now faces an uphill battle to regain his respectability.
Based on historical averages, you can probably expect that at least 30 or so active major league players will one day reach Cooperstown. Another 10-20 have strong or at least arguable cases, and then there are the young 20-somethings whose career is based entirely on projection.
You know Albert Pujols could retire right now and make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. The same goes for Clayton Kershaw or Miguel Cabrera. But then there are the probables, the maybes, the doubtfuls, and the ones whose careers are on track for the Hall at this point but anything could still happen.
To evaluate Hall of Fame chances, I looked at traditional statistics like home runs, batting average, wins, and saves, but also sabermetric ones like WAR and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and the like. I traditionally use FanGraphs’ version of WAR, but I also cited JAWS, which is a Baseball Reference statistic. JAWS takes a player’s career WAR and peak seven-year WAR and averages the two, essentially rewarding players like Johan Santana or Sandy Koufax who had brief flashes of greatness but lacked the longevity of a Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux.
Lock
Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
These four names shouldn’t surprise you. Albert Pujols is the greatest right-handed hitter of this generation, a three-time league MVP with 620 home runs who will eventually surpass 2,000 runs batted in. His current contract with Los Angeles will end up being a disaster, but even so, Pujols is a top-15 position player of all-time… Miguel Cabrera is the only man in the last 50 years to win the hitting Triple Crown. He’s going to reach the 500 home run club sometime in 2019 and he’s still maintaining a .317 career batting average even at age 35… Clayton Kershaw may be breaking down sooner than we expected, as he’s on another DL stint, this time for bicep tendinitis. Still, he’s a modern day Sandy Koufax, having won three Cy Young awards, a league MVP, and a ridiculous five ERA crowns… Mike Trout is quite literally the perfect baseball player. He’s just 26 years old and already pushing the 60-WAR threshold, a mark that in itself is often the standard for a Hall of Famer. He could retire right now and there would likely be a committee to reverse the 10-year minimum rule and put him right in Cooperstown.
Probable
Adrian Beltre
Justin Verlander
Max Scherzer
Buster Posey
Joey Votto
Jose Altuve
Giancarlo Stanton
Craig Kimbrel
When I wrote this article six years ago, I listed Adrian Beltre in the doubtful category. Since then, he’s defied age, playing remarkable offense and defense even as he reaches his late thirties. At this point, he’s joined the 3,000-hit club and he has a solid chance of reaching 500 home runs. His name still doesn’t scream first-ballot Hall of Famer, but it’s difficult to see him not making it… Justin Verlander likely cemented his chances with a remarkable 2017 postseason run that included a World Series championship with Houston. You can quibble with some of his numbers – he’s 0-4 with a 5.67 ERA in five World Series starts – but he’s also won nearly 200 regular season games, a league MVP and Cy Young trophy, four strikeout titles, and an ALCS MVP award. He’s pitching as well right now as anyone in the game… The way Max Scherzer is pitching, his $210 million contract may end up being a bargain. He’s probably overtaken Clayton Kershaw as the game’s best pitcher, having won consecutive Cy Young awards (and three total!). Scherzer has led the league in wins and WHIP three times each, and 2018 could easily make it four apiece… You have to view catchers differently when evaluating their HOF chances. Like running backs, their careers are shortened, making peak value all the more important. For Buster Posey, he’s probably done enough already. He was a crucial element of three World Series championship teams for San Francisco, and he’s a former league MVP and batting champion.
Joey Votto won’t finish his career with the raw numbers you’d like from a first baseman, as he’s 34 already with ‘only’ 263 home runs. But his ridiculous ability to reach base is what should put him in. He’s led the league in OBP a remarkable six times. The only players to do it more times in the game’s history are Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, and Ty Cobb… It’s hard to believe that a 5’6”, 165-pound player like Jose Altuve is one of the game’s premier hitters, but that’s exactly what he is. He’s led the AL in hits for four years running and he’s fresh off a World Series championship and MVP award. He’s still just 28 years old too… Raw power numbers aren’t what they used to be, but when you hit 59 home runs in a season, you stand out. Giancarlo Stanton took home the league MVP award last year and has the fourth-best rate ever of home runs per at-bat, trailing just Mark McGwire, Ruth, and Bonds.
Grading relievers is no easy task. There are six primary relievers in the Hall of Fame (Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, and Trevor Hoffman), and Mariano Rivera will be the seventh. Craig Kimbrel is making a strong case to be the eighth. He’s still just 29 years old, already over 300 career saves, and owner of a lifetime 1.82 ERA. He’s already led the league in saves four times. A signature playoff performance would be nice for his HOF case, but he’s done enough already to be strongly in the conversation as long as he can avoid injury.
Maybe
Chase Utley
Robinson Cano
CC Sabathia
Aroldis Chapman
Zack Greinke
Joe Mauer
Yadier Molina
Chris Sale
Felix Hernandez
Madison Bumgarner
Sabermetrics have always loved Chase Utley. For a five-year period from 2005-2009, Utley was second to only Albert Pujols in total WAR (38.4). Even if you look at a 10-year period (2005-’14) that includes Utley starting to miss games due to injury, he’s still second to Pujols in WAR (57.8). That period includes six All-Star selections, a World Series ring, and several years in which he should have gotten much more consideration for MVP voting than he did. In the history of major league baseball, here are the players who have contributed at least 200 offensive runs above average, 100 defensive runs above average, and 75 baserunning runs above average: Utley.
Let’s say you go by the traditional, non-WAR-related numbers though. Utley’s case becomes much tougher. He’s a .276 career hitter with 259 home runs and under 2,000 career hits. Second basemen don’t usually make the Hall with those numbers unless they’ve won a slew of Gold Gloves. Is it Utley’s fault that the voters have never awarded him with one despite years of elite defense? No. He’s the modern day game’s Joe Morgan, a player who does all the little things right – hit, hit for power, run the bases, play good defense, get hit by pitches, avoid hitting into double plays, hustle everywhere, and win championship(s). He will probably get in but it may take some time.
A month ago, Robinson Cano would have been on the probable category. He’s a .304 career hitter with pretty good odds of reaching 3,000 hits and 600 doubles. Since then, he broke his hand on a hit by pitch and was slapped with an 80-game suspension for using PEDs. Hall of Fame voters don’t look kindly to traditional PED voters, although Cano isn’t your traditional juiced power hitter. If he comes back and puts together a couple more strong seasons – and reaches 3,000 hits – I think he will get in.
Voters will have to lower their standards for starting pitchers. 300 wins doesn’t happen anymore. CC Sabathia has had a Hall of Fame-level career, and he’s 239-147 with a shade under 3,000 strikeouts (2,880). At age 37, he probably won’t reach the 3K strikeout mark, but he’s still a solid bet to get into Cooperstown. Sabathia won a Cy Young (2007) and finished in the top five on four other occasions, was an integral part of a World Series championship team (2009), made six All-Star teams, and led the league in wins twice.
A flamethrower like Aroldis Chapman is a rare breed. He’s posted single-season ERAs of 1.51, 1.63, and 1.55, and his career adjusted ERA of 187 would rank second all-time to Mariano Rivera if he qualified for innings pitched (min. 1,000). Chapman doesn’t have the save total you would expect from a dominant reliever – unlike Kimbrel who has led the league four times, Chapman has never even reached 40 in a season – but that doesn’t necessarily deter him from making the Hall of Fame. Chapman won a ring with the 2016 Chicago Cubs and has a good chance of picking up another with the late 2010s New York Yankees. If he stays healthy, his HOF chances should look good by the time he hits free agency in 2022.
Zack Greinke is teetering on the edge of a Hall of Fame career. He’s already pitched for five teams, which is unusual for such a great player still in his prime. He won a Cy Young with Kansas City (2009) and nearly another with the Los Angeles Dodgers (2015), earning ERA crowns both seasons. Greinke is an above-average hitter (six home runs and a Silver Slugger award) and a top-notch fielder (four Gold Gloves). Greinke is just 3-4 with a 4.03 ERA in the postseason, and a strong October performance culminating in a ring would really help his chances.
Catchers have shortened careers, so hopefully the fact that Joe Mauer switched over to first base at age 30 shouldn’t keep him from the Hall of Fame. Mauer did win a league MVP award, three Gold Gloves, and three batting titles while playing the toughest defensive position on the field. He’s still a .308 career hitter and will retire with one of the highest lifetime batting averages of any backstopper ever.
Yadier Molina’s offensive numbers (.284 average, 132 home runs) pale in comparison to what you’d expect from a Hall of Fame performer, but his offense won’t be what eventually lands him in Cooperstown. It will be the fact that he’s been one of the consistently great defensive catchers to ever play the game, winning eight Gold Gloves, earning eight selections to All-Star teams, and leading St. Louis to a pair of World Series championships.
Predicting a pitcher to make the Hall of Fame is no easy exercise, especially considering the injury history of the position. Chris Sale is already 29 years old and ‘only’ at 96 wins, but his dominance can’t be undersold. He’s finished in the top six in Cy Young voting for six years running (despite no wins), and he currently owns the highest career rates for both strikeouts per nine innings (10.6) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.15). Better postseason pitching would help Sale’s case; he’s 0-2 with a career 8.38 ERA in 9.2 playoff innings.
King Felix Hernandez is in the tail end of his career; he’s only 32 years old but with over 2,500 major league innings on his arm and a fastball that has now dipped to under 90 miles per hour. Hernandez has 165 wins, six All-Star appearances, a Cy Young award, a perfect game, and six 200-strikeout seasons. He’s never pitched in the postseason, thanks to Seattle’s record playoff drought. The average starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame has a JAWS score of 61.7; Hernandez is at just 45.4 and more in line with Roy Oswalt or Cole Hamels. Realistically, it’s going to be difficult for Hernandez to make it, but I put him in the ‘maybe’ category because he sustained many years of greatness and theoretically could put together several bounce back seasons.
It seemed like Madison Bumgarner was trending toward being in the ‘probable’ category, but then he injured his shoulder in a dirt biking accident in 2017 and then broke his hand before the 2018 season even started. Staying healthy is an absolute must for one of the most dominant big-game pitchers this sport has ever seen; Bumgarner is already a three-time World Series champion with both NLCS and World Series MVP awards on his resume, and an otherworldly 0.25 ERA in 36 career Fall Classic innings. Bumgarner has never finished in the top-three in Cy Young voting, but mixing in a first-place finish would likely cement his chances.
Doubtful
Josh Donaldson
David Price
Corey Kluber
Stephen Strasburg
Freddie Freeman
Evan Longoria
Dustin Pedroia
Paul Goldschmidt
Kenley Jansen
A late bloomer, Josh Donaldson didn’t become a regular starter until he was 27 years old. Since then though, he’s been incredibly consistent – only Mike Trout has registered more WAR than the 34.7 that Donaldson has put up since 2013, and Donaldson has an MVP award to go with that. Still, he’s seen quite a drop in his offensive numbers so far in ’18, and Donaldson needs at least five more superb seasons – a la a late career run like Adrian Beltre – to be in the serious HOF discussion.
David Price hasn’t quite been the pitcher Boston expected when they inked him to a $217 million deal prior to the 2016 season. He’s still effective, but a 3.88 ERA in 56 starts is a far cry from the pitcher that won the 2012 Cy Young award with Tampa Bay. Price has a pair of ERA titles and five All-Star appearances, but his 2-8 postseason record with a horrific 5.03 ERA is a major blemish on a borderline HOF resume.
Corey Kluber had just two major league wins entering his age-27 season; he’s now 32 and a two-time AL Cy Young winner and in the conversation for a third this year. Kluber is still at just 83 career wins and needs longevity to enter the discussion, but he’s currently one of the three or four best pitchers in all of baseball… Stephen Strasburg debuted with almost LeBron-esque expectations, and he’s been a consistent All-Star pitcher, but not the perennial Cy Young award winner some had hoped for. Strasburg is almost 30 years old with zero seasons on his resume of over 15 wins. He’s going to need multiple Cy Young trophies and/or World Series rings to generate serious buzz.
Freddie Freeman has quietly blossomed into one of the game’s premier hitters, an on-base machine who hits for power as well. Still, first basemen are held to extremely high offensive standards. Fred McGriff hit 493 home runs and hasn’t made the Hall of Fame. Freeman is 29 years old with a .292 average and 175 home runs; he would need at least another 8-10 years of elite offensive play.
Evan Longoria and Dustin Pedroia have had similar careers; they debuted around the same time, won consecutive AL Rookie of the Year awards, and spent their whole life (until 2018 for Longoria) as infielders for AL East teams. Pedroia has more hardware – an AL MVP award, four Gold Gloves, and two World Series rings – but Longoria has actually been the better player according to WAR (48.7 to 46.8). Neither is quite at the HOF caliber but could generate more discussion with a few more productive seasons.
Paul Goldschmidt has been one of the most feared hitters in the National League since 2013, and his 143 career adjusted OPS ranks higher on the all-time list than players like Alex Rodriguez, Reggie Jackson, and Ken Griffey, Jr. Still, Goldschmidt needs many more years of outstanding play to earn enshrinement in Cooperstown. An MVP award or 50-home run season would help his case.
Kenley Jansen has spent his career overshadowed by Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, but he’s been ridiculously dominant. In addition to 241 saves, Jansen has a 2.11 career ERA and a strikeout rate of 13.8 batters per nine innings. The problem is that he’s a closer, a position that struggles to get in the Hall of Fame without a postseason track record like that of Mariano Rivera. If Billy Wagner can barely get 10 percent of the HOF vote, then Jansen is going to have a near-impossible task.
On Track
Kris Bryant
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
Nolan Arenado
Mookie Betts
Carlos Correa
Corey Seager
Francisco Lindor
Aaron Judge
For the most part, this list consists of players age 25 or younger who have played just a handful of seasons. Projecting their Hall of Fame chance is no easy task; for every Ken Griffey, Jr. or Mike Trout, there’s a Mark Prior or Dwight Gooden. Still, the future is bright for these nine players and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any one of them eventually in Cooperstown.
Kris Bryant has played just three full seasons and already won a Rookie of the Year award, MVP award, and World Series trophy, and now in year four, he’s raised his offensive numbers to a single-season best 156 adjusted OPS… Bryce Harper is more streaky of a hitter than we’d all like to admit, but he’s also 25 years old with five All-Star appearances and an MVP award, and he’s in line for possibly the largest contract in North American sports history… Manny Machado is a 30-home run per year hitter who plays elite defense at shortstop/third base, and he’s still just 25 years old. Only injuries will prevent him from making the Hall of Fame… Nolan Arenado gets the luxury of playing in Colorado where he’s a .318/.370/.600 career hitter compared to .266/.321/.474 on the road, but even so, Arenado is a two-time home run champ and five-time Gold Glover at third base, and he’s still only 27… Don’t look now, but Mookie Betts may be the best player in baseball other than Trout. He’s leading the American League in almost every offensive statistic with a 1.187 OPS that would rank as the 25th best single-season total in MLB history, and he’s also a Gold Glove defender who is still just 25 years old.
Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, and Francisco Lindor are the newest wave in a crop of young shortstops that rival what we saw from Alex Rodriguez/Derek Jeter/Nomar Garciaparra in the late 1990s. Correa is a former No. 1 overall pick who already has a three 20-home run seasons, a World Series ring, and a Rookie of the Year award at age 23. Seager is out for 2018 with Tommy John surgery, but assuming he can rebound at full health, he’s a two-time All-Star and former Rookie of the Year who will still be only 24 when 2019 rolls around. Lindor has packed a lot into three-plus years; at age 24, he’s already a two-time All-Star, Gold Glover, and World Series champion… Aaron Judge nearly won the league MVP award as a first-year starter in 2017, setting a rookie record with 52 home runs. He’s followed up an epic start to his career by raising his batting average and on-base percentage in year two. How good can Judge be? The way he’s playing now, 500 home runs looks like a distinct possibility.
Honorable Mention: It’s Really, Really Early But Looking Good
Shohei Ohtani
Ozzie Albies
Ronald Acuna
These three players have combined for about a season’s worth of career games, but the early results are pretty staggering. Shohei Ohtani made headlines by his pursuit to be the first full-time hitter and pitcher since Babe Ruth. So far, he’s hitting .291/.376/.553 with six home runs in 30 games, and he’s 4-1 on the mound with a 3.35 ERA and a pretty impressive 11.6 K/9 strikeout rate… Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna are 21 and 20 years old, but the one is leading the league in runs scored and total bases, and the other is on pace for 25 home runs despite starting the year as the youngest hitter in the game.
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